【摘要】 设计汛限水位是水库运行的重要特征水位.应用模糊水文水资源学理论与方法计算水库汛期相对隶属函数,确定汛限水位,对水库汛期水位进行动态模糊控制.即根据降雨资料进行直接模糊统计确定汛期经验相对隶属函数.采用降半正态分布模拟汛期理论相对隶属函数;根据水库的实际运行情况,确定分布参数.以经验相对隶属函数为依据,调整参数,由最小二乘法优化准则和估计误差,选择经验与理论相对隶属函数的最优拟合,取两者外包线值作为水库汛期相对隶属函数的最终结果,并将其作为权重,计算不同水库设计标准的汛限水位,实现动态模糊控制.音河水库实例表明了这种方法的科学、合理与可操作性.更多还原

【Abstract】 Flood control limited level(FCLL) is a key water level in reservoir′s operation.The objective is to apply fuzzy hydrology and water resources methodology to determine relative membership function(RMF),and calculate FCLL to perform dynamic control.Firstly,based on rainfall data the direct test of fuzzy statistical method is used to calculate experimental RMF.Secondly,parameters are ascertained according to practical operation,and theoretical RMF is calculated by exponential equation.Thirdly,based on experimental RMF,parameters are modulated to simulate the experimental one by least square method and estimated error,and select the optimal simulation and the exterior enveloped values.Fourthly,the optimal results are taken as weights to calculate FCLL under different design standards.At last,a case study is adopted to determine FCLL in Yinhe Reservoir.The results demonstrate that the new methodology is scientific,reasonable and easy to use in practice.更多还原