【摘要】 根据对桑黄叶虫成虫发生盛期连续21年的调查数据,对相应年份的气候因素进行了相关性回归分析。结果显示,桑黄叶虫成虫发生盛期与4月均温有极显著直线回归关系,据此建立预测模型,用预测模型回验历史符合率为80%。应用该预测模型可以对桑黄叶虫成虫发生盛期作中长期预测。更多还原

【Abstract】 The correlativity regression between the high occurrence period of Mimastra cyanura Hope and the climate factors of the corresponding year was analysed based on the investigation data of continuous twenty-one years.The results showed that there was a significant linear regression relationship between the high occurrence period of the adults and the average temperature of April.Therefore a prediction model for M.cyanura Hope was established.When this model was used for testing the history,the degree of correspondence reached 80%.With this model,the high occurrence period of M.cyanura Hope of mid-long term can be predicted.更多还原