【摘要】 不同票价客票需求强度参数是动态票价理论中的一组基础参数。通过把影响客票需求强度因素区分为市场变化因素(客票的总需求、低价位票产生的提前购票吸引力)和运输方式属性因素(旅行时间、旅行价格、旅行的准时性、旅行的安全性和舒适性等),在弹性客运总需求假设条件下,研究低价位票产生的提前购票吸引力、各交通运输方式之间竞争等因素对各种票价下铁路客票需求强度的影响规律,并以此为基础设计了获得各种票价下客票需求强度参数的数据挖掘方法。通过定义动态票价区域比例这一概念,讨论了实施动态票价机制适宜的外部市场环境(本文特指社会潜在客票总需求和低价位票吸引力2个方面),从而使得该方法能为全国铁路客票发售和预订系统的动态票价决策提供理论依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 The ticket demand relevant to price is a group of base parameters in optimal dynamic pricing theory, though which do not tell its own tale to managers. In this paper the facts which cause fluctuation of the ticket demand are classed into market facts and transportation property facts. The first ones include the total travel demand, another consider a group of transportation property, such as travel’s time, cost, on-time, safety and comfort and etc. On the assumption of elastic demand, the proper share of different style travel get would be calculated by Box-Cox Dogit model, and we get the group of ticket demand relevant to price. But the ticket demand relevant to price is easy to be influence by market conditions, such as the latency ticket demand and the attractive effect of low-price-ticket. A new concept, proportion of the dynamic price area in option dynamic price space, is proposed in this paper. The new concept indicts how much alternative low price could be provided during sale process, so that feasible market conditions could be detected according to the latency ticket demand and the attractive effect of low-price-ticket. This is useful to make strategic decision and critical to convert optimal dynamic price theory into practice.更多还原