【摘要】 应用灰色系统理论方法 ,对临沂市 1990～ 2 0 0 2年冬小麦麦蜘蛛的统计数列 ,建立了灰色GM(1,1)灾变长期预测模型。经检验 ,该模型精度高 ,回测效果好 ,可用于冬小麦麦蜘蛛的长期预报。更多还原

【Abstract】 The method of the Grey System Theory was used in this researc.The Grey system methodwas set up for the long-time forecasting of wheat spiders according to the statistics of the wheat spiders in winter wheat in 1990～2002 in Linyi.The experiment indicated the precision of this model was high and the effect of the forecasting again was good.It can be used in the long time forecasting of the wheat spiders in winter.更多还原