【摘要】 本文结合人口预测方法，从人口和经济两方面分析和预测了人口发展和消费方式转变对我国未来渔业资源的影响。通过因素分解方法，分别得到了人口总量变化和城市化水平提高对水产品消费需求的影响；通过曲线拟合的方法，分别得到农村和城镇收入水平变化对人均水产品消费的影响。并结合以上两方面的预测结果，得出2005-2020年间我国水产品消费总量的需求变化。根据预测分析，对我国渔业资源的可持续性利用进行了一些理论探讨。更多还原

【Abstract】 Combined with population projection,this paper projected and analyzed the effect ofpopulation development and the transition of consuming pattern on fisheries from population andeconomic aspects.By decomposing the factors,the change of demands on aquatic products,which isderived from the quantitative change of population and the increase of urbanization level,was obtainedrespectively;by using method of curve estimation,the change of aquatic consumption per person inurban and country,which is caused by income increasing,was obtained too.Using these two projectionresults,the total quantity of demands on aquatic products from 2005 to 2020 has been successfullyprojected.And several theoretical thoughts about the sustainable utility of piscatorial resources havebeen proposed.更多还原