【摘要】 本文探讨了国家双边关系的定量衡量这一基本理论问题。国家间关系根本上是由国家间的事件表现出来的 ,因此 ,本文借鉴了事件数据分析的已有成果 ,并有所改进。通过确定双边关系分值标准 ,设立事件影响力转换公式 ,衡量由事件引起的既有双边关系分值的变化等环节 ,克服了从事件数据分值过渡到双边关系分值中存在的理论和技术困难。对过去 5年中美关系、中俄关系等的数据测试表明 ,本方法能够对双边关系进行比较有效的衡量 ,衡量的结果能够直接应用于对双边关系的分析 ,并具有比较明显的政策意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper is meant to discuss the basic theoretic question of quantitative meas urement of international bi-lateral political relations. We draw from and impro v e existing findings in event data analysis since inter-national relations are d e monstrated in inter-national events. By setting a standard value for bi-latera l relations and a formula to convert the impact of events, changes in bi-lateral r elations caused by events are measured, with the theoretical and technical diffi culties in converting event data values to bi-lateral relation values overcome. A test with the Sino-America and Sino-Russia relations in the past 5 years sho w that this method is valid in measuring the bi-lateral relations. The results ma y be directly applied to analyses of bi-lateral relations and is significantly h elpful to policy-making.更多还原