【摘要】 采用PRECIS模型输出的B2气候情景,结合CERES-Rice作物模型数据,依据产量的变化率和GIS技术对我国未来(21世纪70年代)水稻的气候变化敏感性和脆弱性进行了研究。结果表明:受气候变化影响,未来我国绝大部分地区的雨养水稻将会减产,仅个别地区有增产趋势。负敏感区(减产区)主要集中在东北的辽宁和赤峰、华北平原大部、江淮及东南沿海地区;而在黑龙江西南部、福建大部、陕西与四川交界地区的雨养水稻有增产趋势。我国的灌溉水稻也以减产为主,负敏感区主要集中在辽宁、吉林西部、华北地区、陕西、宁夏、新疆南部、淮河流域、长江中下游及其以南广大水稻主产区;增产区主要集中在黑龙江西南部、内蒙古东部地区及陕西与湖北交界等地。未来我国雨养水稻的脆弱区主要分布在:(1)东北地区的中南部;(2)山东北部及淮河流域;(3)南部沿海和海南岛;(4)西南地区。未来我国灌溉水稻的脆弱区面积较大,主要分布在辽宁、黄河中游和下游、新疆南部及广西大部地区。更多还原

【Abstract】 By using B2 climate scenario produced by model PRECIS (providing regional climates for impacts studies) and the rice yield data from model CERES-Rice, the sensitivity and vulnerability of rice to future climate change in China were studied based on the yield variation and GIS techniques. Results showed that due to the impacts of climate change, the yield of rain-fed rice in most parts of China will decrease by 2070’s, and only in a few areas there will be a yield increase. Negatively sensitive areas of rain-fed rice will be distributed in Liaoning Province, Chifeng City, the North China Plain, the regions along Yangtze River & Huaihe River,and southeastern coastal areas. Yield increase areas will be distributed in southwestern Heilongjiang, Fujian, and transition region of Shaanxi & Sichuan Province. For irrigated rice, the distribution of negatively sensitive areas will lie in Jilin Province,North China, Shaanxi, Ningxia, southern Xinjiang, Huaihe River drainage areas,the region of middle & lower reaches of the Yangtze River and its south. The southern regions of Heilongjiang Province, the eastern regions of Inner Mongolian, and the transition region of Shaanxi & Hubei Province will be the positively sensitive areas. The vulnerable area will account for about 1/3 of the sown area. The vulnerable areas will be mainly distributed in: (1) the middle and southern parts of Northeast China; (2) northeastern Shandong and the Huaihe River basin; (3) the southeastern coastal area and Hainan Island;and (4) Southwest China. For irrigated rice, the vulnerable area is bigger. The vulnerable regions are mainly distributed in Liaoning Province, the region of middle & lower reaches of the Yellow River, southern Xinjiang and most parts of Guangxi Province.更多还原