【摘要】 要 :以河北洋河水库汛限水位分析为例 ,采用水库洪水调度多目标动态规划模型 ,模拟计算了不同频率入库洪水下水库不同汛限水位所对应的蓄、泄洪关系。在此基础上建立了综合考虑入库洪水、水库安全运行、下泄洪水超下游地区防洪标准、下泄洪水减少导致下游生态环境用水破坏等不确定性因素的水库汛限水位抬高风险评估模型与多目标风险决策模型 ,并对不同汛限水位下洪水资源化利用效益进行了计算 ,得出了不同频率入库洪水下的水库最优分期汛限水位方案。更多还原

【Abstract】 With an example of flood control level analysis of Yanghe Reservoir of Hebei Province, the authors simulate the relationship between reservoir water storing and releasing according to different flood control levels of inflow flood at different frequencies using reservoir regulation multi-objective dynamic programming model. On this basis, the risk analysis model of raising up flood control level and the multi-objective risk decision model are established by integrating the uncertain factors such as inflow flood, reservoir safe operation, the effects of flood release decrease on downstream flood control standard and ecological environment water use. Through calculation of flood-water resources utilization benefits under different flood control levels, the optimal reservoir flood control levels at different stages with different frequencies of inflow flood are sought.更多还原