【摘要】 目的 评估中国冬季气候变暖可能影响血吸虫病传播范围和程度。方法 从全国733个气象站中选取126个气象站的历年1月份平均气温和最低平均气温资料,分析冬季气温变暖的趋势和幅度;用1月份平均气温0℃、最低平均气温-4℃指标来评估气候变暖对血吸虫病传播范围的影响,并分析这两个指标之间的关系。结果 全国冬季气温呈明显上升趋势,1月份最低平均气温和平均气温在1986年前后两个时间段内平均值分别上升1.3℃、0.9℃左右,1月份最低平均气温-4℃和平均气温0℃等值线向北移动1～2个纬度。结论 冬季气温变暖有利于钉螺越冬;气候变暖和“南水北调”加大了钉螺向北扩散的可能性,应加强钉螺的监测工作。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective To assess the potential impact of warming climate in winter to the scale andseverity of schistosomiasis epidemics in China. Methods Based on the data of mean temperature andmonthly minimum temperature in January from 126 (out of 733) weather observation stations in China,the trend and oscillation amplitude was analyzed. The impact of warming climate in winter to the scale ofschistosomiasis spreading was assessed, using the indices of 0℃ mean temperature and -4℃ mean monthlyminimum temperature in January. Correlation between these two indices was analyzed. Results Evidencesshowed the warming climate in winter was seen all over China with the mean monthly minimumtemperature and the mean temperature in January had increased 1. 3℃ and 0. 9℃ since 1986. The contoursof mean monthly minimum temperature -4℃ and mean temperature 0℃ in January moved 1-2 latitudesnorthward. Conclusion The warming climate phenomenon seen in winter was considered favorable to theliving of snails in winter, resulting in the possible increase of northward spreading of snails. Thus,monitoring of snails should be paid special attention.更多还原