【摘要】 目的:探讨食管鳞状上皮重度不典型增生的癌变史。方法:对1992年11月和1997年4月普查确诊的158例为对象建立SPSS数据库,统计累积癌变率和已癌变病例的中位癌变时间;并以确诊后的第1年癌变仍生存患者为参照,分析各年癌变危险度,全部病程117个月。结果:10年累积癌变率81.66%;中位癌变时间59.4个月;第2年至第10年的癌变危险度和可信区间分别为:RR2=4.25(0.89~20.32);RR3=3.37(0.67~16.96);RR4=6.19(1.33~28.77);RR5=8.36(1.83~38.08);RR6=9.46(2.07~43.14);RR7=4.15(0.79~21.81);RR8=2.57(0.42~15.68);RR9=0;RR10=41.60(9.09~190.39)。结论:食管鳞状上皮重度不典型增生属高危人群,与早期食管癌关系密切。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective: To search for the nature medical history of carcinomation in Esophageal Squamous Severe Dysplasia (SD). Methods: the data of 158 cases which were detected in Nov 1992 and in Apr 1997 were input computer and handed by spss software. The cumulative carcinomatious rates and median carcinomatious time were analyzed,to account the nature RR of each year Refering to the first year of carcinomatous conversion rate, the whole duration of observation was 117 months. Results: The cumulative carcinomatious rate for 10 years was 81.66%, median time was 59.4 months. From first to ten years, RR( 95% CI) were as follows: RR2=4.25 (0.89～20.32), RR3=3.37 (0.67～16.96), RR4=6.19 (1.33～28.77), RR5=8.36 (1.83～38.08), RR6=9.46 (2.07～43.14), RR7=4.15 (0.79～21.81), RR8=2.57 (0.42~15.68), RR9=0, RR10=41.6 (9.09～190.39), respectively. Conclusion: the population with SD in esophagus is a very high risk population, the relationship between SD and early esophageal carcinoma were affinitive.更多还原