【摘要】 利用甘肃、宁夏1955—2002年的气象实测资料,北半球500hPa月高度场,月平均太平洋海表温度场资料,将沙尘暴发生的变化趋势看作每年春季的一个气候现象,分析其发生的气候变化趋势、年代际变化以及与大气环流、海温的相关关系,得出沙尘暴气候趋势预测的着眼点,建立沙尘暴短期气候预测概念模型。此模型对沙尘暴发生变化趋势的预测具有一定的实用价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 Correlative analyses showed that regional sand-dust storm climate during spring in Northwest China at some extent has relation with winter circulation field and precipitation field, pole region circulation, westerly circulation and subtropical anticyclone, as well as with the Pacific sea surface temperature field. Based on the relation a conceptual model for forecasting sand-dust storm phenomena of the study region has been put forward. Results judged by the conceptual model are accordant to the results of multivariate regression analysis. It was proved by the actual application that the conceptual model has considerable forecasting ability.更多还原