【摘要】 从可持续度模型的特点出发,分析影响干旱区可持续发展的重要因子,对原先较适用于工业发达,环境污染严重的大中型城市的区域PRED系统模式进行了改进。针对西部干旱区特殊的地理环境和经济结构,将水资源总量和生态环境因子引入可持续度模型。结合干旱区的实际情况和已有模型,选用人口增长、经济发展、发展阶段、水资源总量和生态环境这五大因子建立新的模型。将其应用于新疆和田民丰县,根据其波动规律将民丰县可持续发展变化分为五个阶段。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the characteristics of sustainable development model, we analyze the main factors affecting arid land sustainable development,and improve the old P-R-E-D model, which only suits developed large and medium sized dcities with severe environment pollution. Aiming the special geographical environment and economic structure in the west arid area, total amount of water resources factor and ecological environment factor are introduced to the sustainable development model.Combining the actual conditions with the old model, we chose population growth, economic development, development stage, total amount of water resources and ecological environment five factors the: Applying the new model into the Minfeng County, according to its fluctuation, we divide the changes of sustainable development in the county into five phases.更多还原