【摘要】 本文利用跨期预算约束法对我国国债的长期稳定性进行分析,发现目前我国国债系统长期不稳定。认为这是由我国的经济增长需要和应债能力、发债空间的实际情况导致的。本文还对主要应债主体的国债需求进行分析后估计我国的适度国债规模。最后利用一个简化模型,对我国中长期财政收支目标水平进行估计,并对其进行模拟分析。更多还原

【Abstract】 Using the method of intertemporal budget constraint, this paper analyses the long-term stability of national debt, and draws the conclusion that China’s national debt system is unstable. This is the result of the requirement of the economic growth and the fact of China’s ability to pay for and issue the debts. After analyzing main debtor’s requirement of national debts, this paper also estimates the appropriate dimensions of national debts. In its conclusion and using a simplified model, this paper estimates the medium and long-term fiscal income and expenses and makes some simulations for it.更多还原