【摘要】 传统的滑坡稳定性分析大多是建立在以数学模型为基础的布点、观测、计算、预测这一方法进行的一种确定性分析。实际上,滑坡是一个影响因素众多,边界条件复杂,诱发因数偶然的、不确定的复杂系统。论文运用地理元胞自动机这一时间和空间都离散的动力系统工具,研究了用元胞自动机来模拟滑坡的原理、方法和工作流程,并在GIS技术支持下针对滑坡的可能滑面设定不同的元胞状态并以此确定相应的元胞空间,采用相同的邻居定义和转化规则,着重研究滑坡滑动面从稳定到滑移这一微观动态变化过程,形成Geo CA LANDSLIDE系统。最后,采用100×100的地理元胞自动机模型。实例研究了滑坡形成与元胞演化规律之间的关系,得出了与理论分析相一致的结论。运用GIS技术与之集成,可以将这一过程可视化表达。更多还原

【Abstract】 The traditional methods of analysis of the landslide stability are mostly definite quantitative analysis based on mathematical model according to surveying,observing,calculating and forecasting.In fact,the landslide is an indefinite complicated system consisting of the various and unperedictable factors and the complicated border conditions.Geo-CA is a dynamic system in which time aod space are dispersed.This paper does some work about how to use Geo-CA-landslide to simulate the landslide and expatiates its principle,ways and means.Assigning for the Geo-CA different relative state,according space and adopting the same neighbor and rulbes,the paper pays more attention to the micro-change process from stability to sliding,forming the Geo-CA-landslide model.Finally,the paper analyzed the relation between the forming of landslides and the rules of CA evolvement by the Geo-CA.At the same time,this process can be visualized with the integration of GIS and Geo-CA.更多还原