【摘要】 概率论和数理统计方法一直是地震预报中处理不确定性的主要方法,但在很多情况下并不是特别有效。本文引进了一种新的不确定性处理方法—证据理论方法,介绍了如何用该理论表达地震预报问题。讨论了应用其D-S合成规则进行预报的一般过程,并根据地震综合预报的特点,提出了加权的D-S规则。研究结果表明,证据理论应用于地震预报有其独特的优点。更多还原

【Abstract】 For handling information uncertainty in earthquake prediction, possibility theory and statistics have been the primary method. But in many cases,this method can’t produce effective results. For this reason, a new uncertainty method——Evidence theory is introduced in this paper. At first, the representation of uncertainty for earthquake prediction under the frame of this theory is introduced. Then the general procedure of prediction with the D-S combination rule is discussed,and in accordance with the earthquake synthesizing prediction need, the weighted D-S rule is produced.From our study,it is concluded that the method introduced holds its own effectiveness in earthquake prediction.更多还原