【摘要】 深入分析了基于最大Lyapunov指数预测法产生误差的根源。在此基础上定义了一个新的变量:加权平均一阶发散度,并基于该变量提出了一种新的混沌序列预测方法。首先从理论上对该方法的基本原理进行了系统论述,并指出了加权平均一阶发散度所具有的一些显著特点。然后总结了所提预测方法的算法过程。最后将新方法应用于电力系统的负荷预测中,得到了理想的预测结果。通过分析和比较,验证了其有效性。更多还原

【Abstract】 The error cause of the forecasting method based on maximal Lyapunov exponent is thoroughly analyzed. On this basis, a new variable called weighted average first-order divergence degree is defined. Based on this variable, a novel forecasting method of chaotic sequence is proposed. Firstly, its principle is demonstrated systematically from the theoretical aspect, and some remarkable characteristics of weighted average first-order divergence degree are pointed out. Then, arithmetic procedure of the proposed forecasting method is summarized. In the end, this method is applied to the forecasting of short-term load, and the results are ideal. The analytic and comparison results prove its validity.更多还原