【摘要】 根据汽车生产企业和宾馆企业需求预测问题的基本特点,利用需求时间序列及其变化曲线,提出了一种基于需求景气分析和"幼稚"预测思想的定量预测模型,即首先划分产品的景气变化模式,然后寻找当前点状态的最佳历史匹配,并据此给出需求预测值.本文给出了模型的相关定义及算法,并以宾馆和汽车生产企业的实际需求数据为应用对象,检验了该模型的预测性能.试验结果表明,该方法具有较理想的预测精度.更多还原

【Abstract】 According to the principle characters of forecasting problems concerning some industries, such as hotels and car manufactories, a kind of quantitative demand forecasting model is proposed, which is based on the demand booming analysis and the na¨ve forecasting technology. Firstly the booming patterns of product are partitioned. Secondly, the best matching point on historical line of current status point is found out and whence the forecasting value of demand is computed. The relative concepts of the model and the corresponding algorithms are presented. Two application examples using practical data sets were introduced to test the forecasting performance of the model, which showed satisfactory forecasting accuracy.更多还原