【摘要】 目的　调查估计深圳市性工作者和吸毒人群规模 ,分析影响评估结果的因素 ,为制定有针对性的艾滋病(AIDS)防治策略提供科学依据。方法　在 6个区中 ,分别应用乘数法对各区的性工作者和吸毒人群规模进行调查估计 ,将吸毒人群规模估计数与专家估计数和普查人数进行比较。结果　深圳市约有 6 370 6名性工作者和 2 174 1名吸毒者 ,两类高危人群中 ,特区内分别占 2 8 8%和 5 2 5 %。应用专家估计法和普查法获得的吸毒人群规模分别为 2 0 95 0名和 175 81名 ,与乘数法评估结果比较 ,分别相差 3 6 %和 19 1%。结论　乘数法是AIDS流行相关高危人群规模估计的一种较实用的方法 ,具有方法简便、结果可靠、费用较低、省时省力等优点。但应注意调查时间、指定机构在辖区的代表性、目标人群的识别及调查员培训和调查方法的标准化等因素 ,以减少评估结果的偏差。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective To investigate and estimate the number of commercial sex workers(CSWs) and drug users(DUs) in Shenzhen,and analyze the related factors influencing estimation so as to provide scientific data for the development of HIV/AIDS prevention and control strategy. Methods The multiplier method was adopted to estimate the size of CSWs and DUs in 6 districts of Shenzhen. The DUs size estimated by multiplier method was compared with that by expert estimation method and general investigation method. Rresults There are about 63706 CSWs and 22888 DUs by multiplier method in Shenzhen.Among them,28.8% and 49.9% are living in Shenzhen Special Economy Zone,respectively. The divergence of the DUs size from multiplier method,compared to 20 950 and 17 581 DUs estimated by expert estimation method and general investigation method,were 8.5% and 23.2%,respectively. Conclusion This research indicates that multiplier method is an applicable and better tool,which is simple,convenient,reliable,cost-effective and labor saving in estimating the size of high risk population related to HIV/AIDS infection. In order to decrease the bias of estimation result,we should pay attention to the influence of some factors on the result such as investigating time,representativeness of designated agencies,identification of target population and the standardization of investigation methods.更多还原