【摘要】 人口系统是一个非常复杂的非线性系统 ,对人口数量的准确预测能为生态经济可持续发展计划的制定提供重要依据。建立了一维时间序列的长江流域人口数量的 BP神经网络模型 ,根据 1988～ 2 0 0 1年长江流域人口统计数据 ,借助 Matlab6 .5软件进行预测 ,并与指数平滑预测、自回归模型、L ogistic模型的预测结果进行比较 ,结果表明应用 BP神经网络对人口数量的预测精度更高、效果更好更多还原

【Abstract】 The population system is a very complicated nonlinear system and therefore an accurate prediction of population will be helpful to the planning of sustainable development of bio-economy. The time series model of population prediction of Yangtze Basin based on BPNN was established. According to the statistics on population from 1988 to 2001 and with the help of Matlab6.5, the forecasting result was more precise and effective than traditional prediction methods, such as Exponential Smoothing, Autoregressive Model, Logistic Model, etc.更多还原