【摘要】 通过对以套管失效为顶事件的套管故障树的定性分析 ,得到了 4 7个可以等效为布尔方程的基本事件。结合现场实际将具有布尔特征的基本事件扩充为多水平的模糊集合 ,在此基础上建立了基于故障树的套管失效模糊综合评判分析模型。模型中扩充后的基本事件不同程度发生时 ,顶事件发生的程度需要通过理论分析和大量现场数据及实验数据的统计分析确定。该模型为套管失效的定量评价开辟了一种新的途径更多还原

【Abstract】 According to a qualitative analysis of casing fault tree, and by taking casing failure as the top event, 47 different essential events are found out, and each event can be equaled to Boolean equation. Combined with the oilfield conditions, the essential event with Boolean characteristic are extended to multi-level fuzzy set. Then the casing failure fuzzy integrated evaluation analytical model based on fault tree is established. In the model, while the extended essential events occur at various levels, the level at which the top event occurs must be determined by theoretic analytsis and statistical analysis of oilfield data and experimental data. The model provides a new way to casing failure analysis.更多还原