【摘要】 根据鄱阳湖洪水成因及其影响机制,建立了一个包含入湖流量过程还原、湖盆容积变化、出湖流量过程随之而改变等多个可变因素在内的洪水位计算模型;利用该模型计算鄱阳湖1952～2001年历年(次)洪水在不同年代(20世纪50、60、70、80、90年代)背景条件下的最高水位;对不同年代背景条件下年最高水位序列进行频率分析,将求得的5组洪水位～频率特征值进行比较,得出湖水位频率变化规律;探讨了鄱阳湖洪水位频率逐渐提高的原因,估计了退田还湖对洪水位频率的影响。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on flood origin and influence mechanism in the Poyanghu Lake, a flood stage calculating model is established, including some variable factors as reduction of lake inflow process, volume variation of lake basin and lake outflow variation. By use of this model, the maximum flood stages in the background years of various decades (1950s, 1960s, 1970s, 1980s and 1990s) from 1952 to 2001 are calculated, and then frequency analysis of the maximum flood stage series is made to obtain 5 groups of flood stage-frequency characteristic values for comparison, so as to find out regularity of lake stage frequency variation. In addition, this paper studies the reason of the flood stage frequency gradually rising in the Poyanghu Lake and estimates the influence of return-land-to-lake on the flood stage frequency.更多还原