【摘要】 从ARMA模型出发,对传统的误差实时修正方法进行改进,用服从正态分布的纯随机序列代替,延长了时间序列预测时域.用这两种方法对黄河潼关水文站水沙序列进行了预测,经计算表明,改进的时间序列方法有效地提高了预测精度.更多还原

【Abstract】 The improvement of the conventional method of error real-time correction based on ARMA model and the prolongation of the forecasting range of time series using normal distribution instate of purely random series are presented in this article. These two methods were used at Tongguan hydrometric station to test flow and sediment forecasting and the results computed have shown efficiently improved accuracy of prediction.更多还原