【摘要】 考虑到长江流域复杂的地形特征以及降雨时空分布变化对流域汇流的重要影响,通过引入形状约束条件,建立了以串并联相混合的水库模式为基础的流域分散入流非线性汇流模型,从而较合理反映了白莲河流域这种典型的双羽形水系的汇流特性。在此基础上,运用可变遗忘因子递推最小二乘算法对预报模型汇流结果进行实时校正。更多还原

【Abstract】 The topography of the basin of Changjiang river and the space-time change pattern of the rainfall have important effects on the basin concentration. So, based on the typic double pinnate drainage of the Bailianhe basin, the nonlinear concentration model of scattering input which is established on the reservoir mode of series-parallel connection are presented in this paper with the shape restriction. By means of the variable gain factor recursive least-square method, the forecasting model is real-timely corrected. Using them to forecast the floods of the small basin shows that the models and method are effective in practice, so it can be a feasible flood forecast method for the basin with special topography.更多还原