【摘要】 在我国现有外汇管理制度下 ,国际收支变动通过对货币乘数和基础货币的影响从而对货币供应量M2 产生较大的冲击 ,进而使货币政策的有效性受到影响。论文用Granger因果检验、VAR模型、误差修正模型就这一影响进行了实证分析。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the strict control over foreign exchange practiced in China, balance of payment has a great effect on money supply through its influence on money-supply multiplier and monetary base, thus influencing the effectiveness of monetary policy. This paper analyzes that effect quantitatively with Granger Causality Test, VAR model and Error Correction Model.更多还原