【摘要】 利用我国东部地区1961~2002年夏季(6~8月)高温资料,探讨了上述地区主要城市高温气候特征,建立该地区高温及强高温过程较完整的时间序列。分析我国东部地区石家庄、南京、福州等12城市夏季高温气候特征。观测结果表明,石家庄测站强高温过程期间干热和闷热天气持续时间不长,极端气温高、日平均风速小、日平均相对湿度小;南京和福州测站强高温过程期间闷热天气持续时间长,极端气温高、日平均风速小、日平均相对湿度大。近年来夏季月平均日照时数在减少。东亚副热带高压和大陆变性高压是造成我国东部地区城市夏季高温的主要影响系统,强盛并持续副热带高压和大陆变性高压控制是我国东部地区高温日数和强高温过程偏多的主要原因。在此基础上用均生函数——最佳子回归集建立月气候预测模型,能较好地预测夏季月高温日数,预测误差不大,预测模型具有一定的稳定性,有应用价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 With monthly data of high temperature for the summer (June ～ August) of East China in 1961～2002, climatological characteristics of high temperature is discussed for cites in the region and a fairly complete time series is set up for the regional processes high temperature and unusually high temperature. The climatological characteristics of high temperature for 12 cities (Shijiazhuang, Nanjing, Fuzhou, etc.) in the region are studied. As shown in the observations, hot weather doesn’t last long whether it be with high or low humidity, in Shijiazhuang, which is also marked with high extreme temperature, small diurnal mean wind speed and small diurnal mean relative humidity; hot and humid weather last relatively longer during unusually hot temperature periods in Nanjing and Fuzhou, which is marked with high extreme temperature, small diurnal mean wind speed and large diurnal mean relative humidity. Monthly mean insolation hours have been decreasing in summer in recent years. The subtropical high and continental transforming high in East Asia are two governing systems for high summer temperature in the Chinese cities. Strong and persistent, they are the main factors responsible for relatively more days of high temperature and more frequent in the east of China. On its basis, a monthly climate prediction model is set up using the generalized function and optimized subset regression. It is shown to predict monthly high temperature with miner errors. The model is stable and useful.更多还原