【摘要】 针对山东旱涝变化规律的特殊性 ,利用 Z指数对山东单站旱涝等级进行了评定 ,在 Z指数的基础上构造了新的区域旱涝指标 ,对山东 1 95 1～ 2 0 0 3年区域旱涝指数进行计算和分类 ,利用Morlet和 Mexican hat小波变换对山东和邻近地区的夏季旱涝指数的振荡规律进行对比分析。结果表明 ,山东夏季旱涝与华北、黄淮地区相差较大 ,山东夏季旱涝具有明显的阶段性和群发性的特征和2～ 5年的振荡周期。更多还原

【Abstract】 The grade indices of eleven observatories in ShanDong Province from 1951 to 2003 are calculated, and a new area index of flood and drought is constructed based on eleven observatory grade indices. Classified by Z-index, it was found that there were more floods from 1951 to 1965,1970 to 1978,1993 to 1996 and more droughts from 1979 to 1992,1997 to 2001.Analysis using method of Morlet and Mexican hat wavelet transform shows that there were 2 to 5 years oscillations in the summer rainfall over Shandong which is differ from Huabei and Huanghuai area.更多还原