【摘要】 以 2 0 0 1年中国耕作制度区划为基本蓝图 ,通过分析全国 2 5 0 0多个县的基本农业生产数据库 ,确立了全国各熟制区粮食作物高、中、低产布局 ,并对未来粮食安全的生产战略进行了预测。研究结果表明 ,到 2 0 2 0年 ,若全国低产区域粮食总产保持在 886 2万 t;中产区域的单产提高到高产区域的水平 ,即中产区域粮食总产达到 19784万 t;高产区域的粮食单产再提高 30 % ,即粮食总产达到 32 6 4 3万 t,则全国粮食总产可达到 6 12 89万 t,基本满足 15亿人口的粮食需求。为实现以上目标 ,我们建议 :进行全面产量区划 ,在对全国粮食产量进行规划的基础上 ,建立 0 .3亿 hm2 左右超高产田和 0 .3亿hm2左右高产田 ,稳定 0 .3亿 hm2左右的中低产田 ,建立 1亿hm2“国家粮食安全基地”;尽快确立国家粮食综合生产能力长期研究机制 ,建立高产、超高产综合技术体系 ,力争首先在实验田实现 :一熟地区粮食产量达到 10 0 0 kg,二熟地区达到15 0 0 kg,三熟地区接近 180 0～ 2 0 0 0 kg;建立“国家粮食综合生产能力预警中心”,开展国内外粮食安全的综合性研究 ,为国家提高粮食单产提供技术高产、超高综合技术体系与示范样板更多还原

【Abstract】 It is illustrated that intensive, multi-plant and higher-yield are key approaches to improve crop potential capacity, by history review and comprehensive research. In this paper, we analyzed agricultural data of 2 500 counties in China using Farming System Regions, establish lower-yield, middle-yield and higher-yield distribution of all crops, and also forecast the future situation of food security in 2020 in China. The results are following: If total production of lower-yield areas keep 88.62 million ton, total production of middle-yield areas increase to 197.84 million ton, total production of higher-yield areas increase to 326.43 million ton, then the national total production will reach 612.89 million ton, it can feed 1.5 billion people of China in 2020.To meet above need some advice were given out: keep 100 million hm 2 food field as food security bottom, including 33 million hm 2 super-higher-yield field, 33 million hm 2 higher-yield field and 33 million hm 2 middle-yield field; set up long-term research system on national crop integrated production capacity and higher-yield cultivation techniques, realize 15 000 kg/hm 2 in single-cropping areas, 22 500 kg/hm 2 in double-cropping areas, 27 000～30 000 kg/hm 2 in triple-cropping areas in experimental level; establish research and forecasting centre of crop integrated production capacity, provide national and aboard experiences and examples for decision-makers.更多还原