【摘要】 建立灰色系统模型和回归模型 ,预测了青海省第一产业、第二产业、第三产业、城乡居民生活对能源矿产的需求强度 ,预测了青海省人口发展变化情况和产业结构变化情况。在此基础上 ,采用部门分析法预测了青海省 2 0 0 5年、2 0 10年、2 0 15年和 2 0 2 0年对煤炭、石油、天然气矿产的需求量 ,同时根据预测结果提出了能源结构调整的建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Grey forecast models and regression models are established. They are used to forecast the intensities of the demand on energy minerals by the primary, secondary and tertiary industries and urban and rural residents in Qinghai Province and the changes in population development and industrial frame. Based on this, Qinghai Province’s demand on energy minerals such as coal, petroleum and natural gas in 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020 is predicted by analying the demand of various industrial branches. Meanwhile, suggestions on energy structure regulation are made according to the forecast results.更多还原