【摘要】 本文从现代协整理论出发,研究了中国人口转变、实际工资与实际产出之间的长期动态均衡关系及信忠传导机制。结果表明:在出生率、婴儿死亡率、实际人均工资、实际 GDP 之间,至少存在单向的 Granger 因果关系;对数序列均为非平稳Ⅰ(1)序列。长期来看,死亡率的降低将导致出生率的降低。此外,还证明了出生率与死亡率均为经济系统的内生变量。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper investigates the long-run relationship between demographic changes, average annual wages and real per-capita GDP in China over the period 1952-2001.The relation- ship was found to be of non-stationary I(1)type in our unit-root test.The evidence suggests that at least one-direction Granger-causality exists in these two groups of variables.Our results also show that the fertility rate and infant mortality rate are endogenous to the economic system.更多还原