【摘要】 分析了公司研发项目的成功时间是随机的 (也即研发存在着技术不确定性 )时所作的R&D决策 .在模型中体现了公司风险偏好 .影响的结果是使得决策投资进入点升高 ,在退出点 ,如沉淀成本较小或风险率很大时 ,退出点超过Marshallian水平 ,使得公司在期望价值为正时也可能放弃研发更多还原

【Abstract】 A strategy of a firm was analyzed when the firm has t he opportunity to invest in a project facing technological uncertainty. The risk p reference was considered in the model. The effect of technological uncertainty r aised the trigger point for investment. In the abandonment point, when the sunk costs were small or the hazard rate was high, the Marshallian level was exceeded . The firm may abandon a research project while its expected value remained posi tive.更多还原