【摘要】 利用时序分析方法研究从 2 0 0 3年 4月 2 7日开始卫生部办公厅发布的全国内地新增传染性非典型肺炎疫情报告 ,建立全国内地非典型肺炎疫情ARMAV预报模型 ,对模型进行适用性检验后 ,可以用所建模型对未来疫情进行外延预测。用时序分析方法进行监测、分析及预报 ,对非典型肺炎的疫情发展和关键影响因素等提供精度较高的预测结果更多还原

【Abstract】 The fitted models(ARMAV) of internal SARS epidemic disease by Ministry of Health P. R. China reporting SARS epidemic disease from 27.April using the time series analysis method were studied in this paper. Future epidemic diseases were predicted with the model after adaptoble testing. The prediction results can meet the demand of the epidemic prevention , the key acting elements and development of SARS epidemic disease by monitor can be shown, analysis and prediction using the method.更多还原