【摘要】 以供需平衡的观点分析了传统交通预测分析方法及其局限性,从需求分析与供应分析两个方面,用交通需求管理技术的观点,提出了城市快速道路系统的道路网络容量限制供需协调预测分析方法.所用预测方法引进了道路时空资源的概念,根据城市快速道路系统的固有特点,计算未来容许的需求发展规模,确定城市快速道路系统的供应策略及规划方案.更多还原

【Abstract】 The harmonious traffic forecast process for transportation demand and supply with road network ca pacity restriction is discussed from the viewpoint of transportation management technology. By analyzing the re-lationship between demand and supply, and introducing the concept of space - time resource, a conclusion is drawn that the balance is relative and imbalance is absolute. From the naturai features of urban freeway and arterial systems ( UFAS) , the scale of acceptable demand development can be estimated for future by the traffic forecast method, and supply strategy and planning theme can be confirmed. Some parameters related to space - time resource are very important to the traffic forecast.更多还原