【摘要】 Bertalanffy模型是一类重要的增长模型,但预测用户尚不大了解。分析和讨论该模型 的特性及其参数估计方法,并以中国人口增长的预测为例检验了该模型的有效性。结果表明, 至少在人口预测上,Bertalanffy模型比熟知的Logistic模型要好。更多还原

【Abstract】 Bertalanffy model is an important class of growth model, but is not yet familiar to the users. The method of parameter estimation was analyzed and discussed. Moreover, it gives an after-forecasting to the population growth in China in order to verify the effectiveness of this model.The result turns out that at least in the problem of population-forecasting, Bertalanffy model is better than the Logistic model.更多还原