【摘要】 介绍了应用投入产出法和情景分析法进行能源需求和能源强度预测的基本原理,并给出了基于投入产出的能源需求和能源强度情景分析模型的总体框架。针对该模型,围绕影响能源需求和能源强度变化的各种社会经济因素,以逐层叠加的方式建立其情景分析模型。运用1997年的数据,针对全面实现小康社会目标的各种情景,定量地分析了社会经济发展因素对能源需求和能源强度的影响,得到了有关结论,并提出了有关政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper introduced the rationale of applying input output method and scenario analysis to project energy requirements and energy intensity; and set up the general framework of a model for scenario analysis of energy requirements and energy intensity, based on input output method. According to the model, a set of scenarios were developed by introducing step by step the major impact factor of energy requirements in China’s economy and society; the energy requirements and energy intensity of year 2010 and year 2020 were projected, using the data of year 1997; the impact of the perceived changes in the economy and society on energy requirements and energy intensity were quantitatively analyzed; some related conclusions were attained and some corresponding policy suggestions were proposed.更多还原