【摘要】 可持续发展是人类21世纪的主题,因此在交通方式分担率预测时不仅要考虑需求,更要考虑社会经济、资源及环境。文章即基于这一思想提出了可持续发展的客运交通方式分担率宏观优化模型,在宏观控制的基础上,充分考虑影响城市客运交通结构的各因素,建立了基于距离曲线的城市客运交通方式分担率预测模型,并通过实例进行了分析验证。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the sustainable development is one of the primary themes of human beings in the 21st century,it should be taken into account not only the traffic demand but also the social economy,the environment and the resources in the forecast of traffic by mode.Based on this idea,a macroscopical optimizing model of urban passenger traffic assignment is brought forward based upon the sustainable development in this paper.After processing the macroscopical control,a forecasting model of urban passenger traffic which sufficiently considers many influencing factors is found on the ground of distance diversion curve.At last,the model is validated by an example.更多还原