【摘要】 文章提出利用概率统计方法评估低压用户的供电可靠性,该方法不需涉及配电网络的具体结构和设备元件的可靠性特征,只需建立系统的分区模型,抽取部分用户的停电信息,充分利用概率统计的理论求出整个待评估区域内低压用户的可靠性指标和满足一定置信度的置信区间,可方便灵活地对配电网的供电可靠性指标做出快速的评估。最后,经过实例验证了该方法的有效性。更多还原

【Abstract】 Here, it is pointed out to evaluate the power supply reliability for consumers in low voltage distribution network by probability statistics which does not relate to the concrete construction of distribution network as well as the reliability features of power equipments. In this method only following contents should be done, i.e., to establish a sub-area model of distribution network, to extract the blackout information of partial consumers, to make full use of the theory of probability statistics to achieve the reliability indices of low voltage consumers in the whole area to be evaluated and to achieve the confidence interval that can satisfy a certain degree of confidence. With this method the power supply reliability index of distribution network can be conveniently and quickly evaluated. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by practical examples.更多还原