【摘要】 概率预测已经在气象、地震预测等领域中成功应用。提出将概率预测的方法用于负荷预测领域。在深入研究年最大负荷与温度关系的基础上建立了概率预测模型 ,模型有较高的预测精度 ,并已形成实用化应用软件 ,软件已在河南省正式使用 ,使用效果好。更多还原

【Abstract】 Probabilistic forecast has been successfully applied to weather and earthquake f orecast, so it also can be applied to load forecast. This paper thoroughly resea rches the effect of air temperature on annual peak load,and on the basis of whic h, the probabilistic forecasting model of annual peak load is established. The m odel has high precision.A practical software has been formed and applied to Hena n Power System, where the forecasting effect is good.更多还原