【摘要】 介绍了传染型余震序列(ETAS)模型的基本原理和发展概况,并利用该模型分析了1999年开始的台湾集集地震序列(主震MS7.6)和1989年开始的大同地震序列(主震为MS5.7)。通过分析计算,得到了二个序列的ETAS参数向量,并结合各自的孕震环境和机制分析了二个地震序列的异同和序列衰减规律。更多还原

【Abstract】 The basic principle and development of ETAS (Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence) model are introduced in this paper, and the authors use this model to analyze both Chi-Chi shock sequence in Taiwan (main shock with M_S7.6) beginning from 1999 and the Datong shock sequences beginning from 1989 main shock with M_S5.7). The authors obtained the parameter vectors of the two sequences by analyzing and calculation, and then explore the difference of the two sequences and the decay model of some sequences in different regions in our country. At last the application prospect of the model is discussed.更多还原