【摘要】 根据Romer(2001)的假说,由于资源与土地的限制,单位劳动力平均产出最终将呈下降趋势,从而存在由于经济增长中资源环境要素消耗导致的"增长尾效"。文章以此分析为基础,计算了中国经济的"增长尾效",大约为每年1.75个百分点,同时计算了由于"增长尾效"的存在,如果继续推行过去几年的生产要素投入政策,沿着平衡增长路径,要想在2020年实现人均GDP比2000年翻两番的目标,技术进步导致的经济增长率至少要达到0.6%。文章的分析也为中国经济增长提供了一个科学的基础。更多还原

【Abstract】 According to the assumption of Romer(2001), since there is a tendency for the output per worker to fall eventually because of the limitation of resource and land, there exists growth drag caused by the consumption of resource environment factors in economic growth. Based on this analysis, we compute the growth drag of China, i.e. 1.75 percent annually and compute that, with the existence of growth drag, along balance growth path, the growth rate caused by technology progress must reach at least 0.6% if we want to reach the target of GDP per capita of 2020 to be four times that of 2000, if we still go on carrying out the policy of factors inputs which has been enforced theses years. Besides, the analysis of this paper also provides a scientific foundation for the economic growth of China.更多还原