贸易开放度对经济增长的长期均衡效应

【摘要】 对我国外贸开放度与经济增长的长期均衡关系作实证检验表明 ,目前我国贸易开放度对于GDP的直接拉动作用尚不明显 ,贸易开放度主要是通过对总供给的影响间接带动经济增长 ,即通过促进资本形成、加快技术进步和提高要素生产率等来促进经济增长。同时贸易开放度的提高对劳动力的需求具有负效应 ,因此 ,提高人力资本和技术水平应该成为我国未来发展对外贸易的关键所在。更多还原

【Abstract】 The paper applys co-integration analysis and Granger-test to studying the long-term equilibrium relation between international trade dependent ratio and economic growth in China. The result of experienced study indicated that the international trade opening degree’s direct impellent function on GDP was not obvious, and international trade opening degree affected the economic growth indirectly by affecting total supply, i.e. it hastened economic growth by promoting capital accumulation, accelerating technique progress and improving factor productivity, etc.. The improvement of international trade opening degree had adverse effect on the demand for labor-force. Hence, improving human capital and technique degree should be the key to developing international trade of China in the future.更多还原