【摘要】 将逐时段定点降水非连续量的预报问题转化为对一个连续的降水可能函数的预报问题。降水可能函数为一由实况值确定的函数。发展了一种新的非线性多因子动态组合方法 ,通过对降水可能函数的预报 ,作客观分站降水预报。 1998年在北京地区 15站进行了为期半年的预报试验 ,当天夜间的降水预报平均CSI得分为 0 4 0 ,第二天白天平均CSI得分为 0 4 0。更多还原

【Abstract】 The forecast of precipitation at station is usually as the forecast of a discontinuous variable.In this paper,the forecast is transformed into a forecast of a continuous variable—possibility function of precipitation(PFP).PFP is determined by observations.And a new method,dynamic combination equation of nonlinear multi-factors(DCENMF),has been developed to forecast precipitation at station by forecasting PFP.Based on this approach,experimental objective forecasts of precipitation at stations were made in Beijing district from July to December 1998.Precipitation forecasts for 15 stations are assessed by the critical success index (CSI). The mean CSI is 0.40 for the night,and 0.33 for the next day.更多还原