【摘要】 论述了近年来对地球表面温度变化特征、原因研究的意义及研究进展。许多研究表明,20世纪全球地表气温的变化是自然因素和人为因素共同作用的结果。根据多种反映太阳活动的代用指标拟合的气候模型指出,太阳活动可以解释1850年以前气温变化的大部分情况。工业革命以来,温室气体成为不可忽视的影响因素,太阳活动对气候影响所占的比重及其相互作用的物理机制仍然是有待深入研究和解决的问题。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper, the significance and development of the study on change character and cause of the earth surface temperature in recent years were discussed. Some results show that cause of global temperature change near the earth’s surface in twentiethcentury are due to natural variability combined with anthropogenic influence. The climatic models simulated by proxy indices reflecting solar activity point out that solar variability can interpret most of temperature change before 1850. Since the industrial revolution, the influence of greenhouse gas cannot be ignored. The effects of solar variability on climate and their interactive mechanism need to be deeply researched.更多还原