【摘要】 运用分形理论对1950～1997年我国洪涝灾害农田成灾面积序列进行了研究。分析结果表明,洪涝灾害系统的变化具有分形特征,农田成灾面积时间序列的平均可预测时间尺度为8～9年;同时运用R/S分析方法对1950～1997年中各时段农田成灾面积的变化趋势进行了测算,测算结果与实际农田成灾面积的变化趋势十分吻合,表明上述方法是进行洪涝灾害系统分形研究的有效途径。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on fractal theory,time sequence of inundated area of cropland due to flood disaster from 1950 to 1997 are studied. The results indicate that flood disaster systems have fractal characteristics, average time-scale of forecasting inundated area of cropland is 8～9 year. According to R/S analysis, the forecasted results for time periods during 1950～1997 are quite consistent with actual changing trend of inundatod area. It shows that the above mentioned method is an effective way of fractal research into flood and waterlogging disaster system.更多还原