【摘要】 目前在投入产出乘数分析中存在一些问题,要么夸大了乘数作用,形成虚假经济繁荣,要么低估了乘数作用,遗漏了某些应考虑的因素,或者在乘数分析的应用中错误地理解其经济内涵,有关指标界定不清,使模型计算出现较大误差。因此,必须从实际出发,运用投入产出乘数的基本原理,理清其倍加作用的传递机制,采用结构式凯恩斯乘数模型及考虑最终产品间旁侧效应的方法,密切结合现实问题,合理量化和界定相关指标,纠正应用中易出现的各种偏差,使乘数分析更加符合实际,提高乘数应用效果。更多还原

【Abstract】 When we analyze the case of IO multiplier, it is not difficult to find deviances aroused by the model and methods used by experts. It seems that we are always in a nowin situation when we apply the methods to produce the result. It is always ambiguous due to the outcomes that sometimes the role of multiplier has been overestimated so as to form the gloss of economic boom, or underestimated since we leave out some necessary factors. This is the reason why the author examines the transfer mechanism of multiple function following the clarification of basic principle of IO multiplier. The author first puts forward the structural Keynesian multiplier model and the methods concerning the "combination effect" between final products. Then the author strives for approaching the result by the aid of the prior model and methods to the real situation, giving the relevant index a clear boundary in order to point out the ground of the deviances and make necessary adjustment to improve the quality of multiplier as a conclusion.更多还原