【摘要】 目的　研究同一样本儿童在 8年中乳牙龋与恒牙龋之间的相关性 ,确定乳牙龋是否可作为恒牙龋危险因素的预测指标。方法　在 1 992年和 2 0 0 0年对北京地区 362名 3～ 4岁儿童的乳恒牙龋调查的基础上 ,分析乳、恒牙龋的相关性。结果　儿童乳、恒牙的患龋率和龋均都有显著的相关性 (P <0 0 1 ) ,乳牙龋儿童的恒牙龋危险是乳牙无龋儿童的近 3倍 (RR =2 6 ,95 %CI=1 4～ 4 7,P <0 0 0 1 )。以乳磨牙龋预测恒牙龋危险的灵敏度达 93 9% (RR =3 3 ,95 %CI =1 8～ 6 1 ,P <0 0 0 1 ) ,特异度为 85 4%。结论　儿童乳牙龋可以作为恒牙龋危险的预测指标更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective To study whether the caries status of the primary dentition correlated with status of the permanent in the same cohort over an eight year period To determine whether the caries status of the primary dentition can be used to predict caries in the permanent dentition Methods A total of 362 children, 3～4 years old in the baseline study in 1992 were re examined in 2000 based on WHO criteria and methods Results Statistically significant associations were observed between the caries prevalence in primary and permanent teeth ( P <0 01)and between DMFT (s) and dmft (s) ( P <0 01) Children who had caries in the primary teeth were nearly three times more likely to have caries in the permanent teeth ( RR= 2 6,95% CI=1 4～4 7, P <0 001) The highest sensitivity (93 9%) for prediction caries in the permanent dentition was found in caries presence on any of the eight primary molars, for which the relative ratio was 3 3 (95% CI=1 8～6 1, P <0 001) and the positive prediction value was 85 4% Conclusion The study determinate clearly that caries status in the primary teeth can be used as a risk indicator for predicting caries in the permanent dentition更多还原