【摘要】 在对华北地区 114项骨干前兆观测资料进行地震短期异常前兆信息量提取与计算基础上 ,结合华北地区地质构造、地震活动、地壳厚度 ,特别是现今动力学环境因子等因素 ,研究了华北地区地震短期异常前兆信息量的时、空演化特征及其与地震的关系 ,给出了华北地区MS≥ 5地震短期综合预测的指标和方法。经R值评分检验表明 ,该方法具有一定的地震预测效果。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the extraction and calculation of precursory information magnitude of earthquake short-term anomaly for 114 items of main observational data in the North China region, and consideration the factors such as geological structures, seismic activities, crustal thickness, nowadays geodynamics condition in the North China region, this paper studied the space-time evolutional characteristics of precursory information magnitude of earthquake short-term anomaly and its relation with seismicity in the North China region, and gave out the index and method of short-term synthetic prediction of earthquakes with M ≥5.0 in the North China region. Through inspection of R value, it shows that the method has a certain effect on earthquake prediction.更多还原