【摘要】 通过建立线性回归-时间序刊AR(p)组分预测模型,提出利用前一年气象因子资料,预测翌年茶园主要害虫假眼小绿叶蝉(Empoasca vitis)活动高峰始盛期的方法,从而提前了虫灾预测的发布时间。并将该方法应用于福建省福安茶区,对防治害虫、减少农药用量、优化茶园生态有较好效果。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on establishing the combinative prediction models AR ( p) of the linear regression and lime scries,a method for prediction of beginning period of activity peak of Empoasca vitis next year,by using observed values of climat-ic factions in last year,was proposed.Therefore one can advance the announcement date of pest disaster explosion.The prediction practices in Fu’an tea field,Fujian Province,indicate that this combinative prediction method is a feasible mean.更多还原