【摘要】 针对产品故障时间间隔服从指数分布、备件需求量为泊松流的航空设备备件需求量预测模型,结合概率统计的理论对用该模型预测的备件需求量所面临的保障风险和经济损失作了一定的理论探讨,并给出了相应的定量关系式。最后用一个工程实例对预测模型进行了验证,风险分析从理论上进一步完善了该模型,为其在工程实际应用提供了理论依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper analyzes the support risk and economic loss for the forecast model of spare parts for aero-electronic equipment and gives the relevant quantitative expressions, based on the theory of probability. The failure time of this kind of equipment follows an exponential probability distribution and the demand for spare parts keeps a Poisson probability distribution. At last, these models using an engineering example.更多还原