【摘要】 应用灰色预测建模理论,使用精确差分格式和改进拟合参数的方法,对呈波动变化的数据系列,建立了改进的灰色预测模型.由于拟合参数与误差之间存在着明显的非线性关系,选用自适应遗传算法求取拟合参数最优值.通过对油田产量预测的实例计算表明,改进的灰色模型预测精度明显提高.更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper, a modified gray forecast model is developed on the basis of gray model theory, and an accurate difference schemes and an improved matching method for solving the undulatory problem emerged in data sequence have been employed. Considering the fact that nonlinear relation between features parameters and errors, an adaptive genetic algorithm is used to find optimal estimated value for matching parameters. A practical example of oilfield production forecast shows that using the improved gray forecast model high accuracy can be obtained.更多还原