【摘要】 在介绍PERT网络模型基础上 ,从影响项目工期的风险因素出发 ,分析风险因素对项目活动的影响 ,提出了一种新的项目活动持续时间的估算方法 ,通过多次模拟确定项目持续时间分布和期望工期 ,并可找出影响项目工期最大的因素。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the introduction of PERT network model, this paper puts forward a new estimating method which determines the distribution of risk for activity’s duration. Moreover, it is pointed that we also can derive the duration distribution and expected time limit of a project from simulations and find out the most important factor of effecting the project at the same time.更多还原